Summer
is usually the time when political activities tend to subside, but that
has not been the case in the Balkans this year, particularly in Serbia.
With a new government sworn in, economy still struggling, tense
relations with its neighbors, and amid a visit by the US vice president
Joseph Biden, Serbia was a hot name in Balkan geopolitics this summer.
New Serbian government : Reforms vs. Controversies
It took Aleksandar Vucic, the recently
re-affirmed Serbian Prime Minister about three months to form a new
government. Mr. Vucic’s new cabinet won the popular mandate on a
platform that promised increased reforms and completing talks for
Serbia’s entry into the EU by 2019, while at the same time maintaining
close ties with Russia.
Mr. Vucic comes from an
ultra-nationalist background. He lately started to nurture more of a
centrist image after his party started to hold state power since 2014.
The fresh elections of 2016 reasserted Mr. Vucic’s popularity, and
provided an opportunity to broaden his coalition to share the
responsibilities of his proposed reforms.
Although there were signs that the Mr.
Vucic was considering coalition partners outside of the SPS, the party
formed during the early nineties by Slobodan Milosevic, the final
changes in the Vucic cabinet were limited. Some local analysts have even
started asking the question what was the utility of the fresh
elections, given that cabinet changes were so few and far between?
Prime Minister Vucic’s reform minded
policy plans appear as follows: to establish his personal status as the
great leader who resolved Serbia’s economic blights, bring the country
on the brink of the EU membership, resolve the status of Kosovo
permanently, mend relations with the neighboring states, particularly
Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and at the same time, remain in good
relations with Russia besides developing strong ties with China and
Arab states.
The centrist Serbian weekly magazine
“Vreme” characterize Mr. Vucic’s rule as that of holding the country in a
“state of perpetual election campaign”.
Mr. Vucic wants to assert himself as the
policy lead and chief negotiator in negotiations with the EU. As part
of that plan, he took positive steps in improving relations with
Serbia’s neighbors, for example, signing adeclaration of understanding with the Croatian President Ms. Grabar-Kitarovic in June 2016, and agreeing to hold a trilateral meeting
between Serbia, Albania and Kosovo later in the year. There were also
noticeable attempts at developing stronger relations with the West.
Prime Minister Vucic’s ministerial
appointments reflect his agenda for improved international ties as well.
He retained the finance minister Dusan Vujovic, a former World Bank
economist, whose confirmation is seen as a signal of continuation of economic policies
undertaken since 2014 when Mr. Vucic first came to power. This is a
welcome news given that the Serbian economy is still sluggish and
lagging other countries in the region, and Mr. Vucic’s centrist policies
have shown some serious promise fixing the economy.
Mr. Vucic replaced Ms. Kori Udovicki,
the previous minister for state administration, a sensitive post in a
country that needs deep reduction in state administration costs. Ms.
Udovicki was an Yale graduate and former UN assistant secretary. Mr.
Vucic gave Ms. Udovicki’s portfolio to Ms. Ana Brnabic,
a graduate of the University of Hull, England, former USAID official in
Serbia, who also happens to be the Balkan region’s first openly gay
minister.
To nurture stronger ties with Russia,
Mr. Vucic is going to rely on his main coalition partner SPS and its
leader Mr. Ivica Dacic. Along with the current Serbian President Mr.
Tomislav Nikolic, a key member of Vucic’s ruling SNS party, Mr. Dacic is
widely seen as the key “Russia guy” within the Serbian government.
Russia, for its part, has made it clear that it is keenly interested in developments in Serbian politics and also counts on its “allies” within the Serbian government for advancement of its regional goals.
Controversies around monuments and statues
The dualism inherent within the
reformist agenda of Prime Minister Vucic, where he wants warm relations
with both the West and Russia is expected to not go without
controversies. The SPS leader and Foreign Minister Mr. Ivica Dacic and
Labor Minister Mr. Aleksandar Vulin, known to be an “old fashioned”
anti-West politician, recently proposed erection of a statue of former
Yugoslavian President Slobodan Milosevic as part of a new national
monument in Belgrade. President Slobodan Milosevic was controversially claimed by Serbian Foreign Minister Mr. Dacic as being “exonerated” by the International Crimes Tribunal for Yugoslavia.
While the Serbian President Mr. Tomislav Nikolic remained ambiguous in his support for the Milosevic monument by stating that “he is being torn between being in favor and against”
such a monument, Prime Minister Mr. Vucic remained more measured and
calculative, even though he allowed Mr. Dacic and Mr. Vulin go out to
the public with their controversial monument building proposal. For his
part, Prime Minister Vucic publicly stated that “he did not want to
remain in the Nineties”, and that he was “angered by the glorification
of Milosevic’s policy and of what he did.” Media reports suggested that
Mr. Vucic thinks it is “neither the right place nor the right time” to
engage on the Milosevic monument.
Mr. Vucic’s statements are helpful in
de-escalation of nationalistic sentiments in the Balkans, particularly
in response to latest radical moves in neighboring Croatia, where there
was a similar issue around building amonument commemorating Mr. Miro Baresic, the man who infamously murdered the Yugoslav ambassador to Sweden in 1971.
US Vice President Joe Biden’s visit : Serbia showcases US support
The Milosovic monument controversy crept
into the affairs surrounding the visit of the US vice president Joe
Biden to Belgrade. While it was first planned that Mr. Dacic as the
foreign minister of Serbia would greet Mr. Biden at the airport, at the
last minute it was the Prime Minister Mr. Vucic who greeted Mr. Biden
first.
Mr. Vucic had to cancel his Washington
D.C. visit in June 2016 for undisclosed reasons. He reportedly have
worked hard to mend ties with the US during the Vice President Biden’s
visit.
After the talks, Mr. Biden publicly stated
that “The United States and Serbia do not agree on every issue”, and
the Vice President also extended his condolences “to the families of
those whose lives were lost during the wars of the 1990s, including as a
result of the NATO air campaign [of 1999].” The NATO air strikes
referred here by Mr. Biden lasted from March 24, 1999 to June 10, 1999,
under the operational code name “Operation Allied Force”. The NATO
bombardment continued until the withdrawal of Yugoslav armed forces from
Kosovo and till the commencement of the UN peacekeeping mission there.
The NATO intervention was to protect the Albanian population in Kosovo
who were being persecuted by ultra nationalist Serbs, Serbian police,
and Serbian paramilitary forces. The NATO bombing was not authorized by
the United Nations due to veto threats from Russia and China. NATO
went ahead with the bombings, which killed about 600 people in today’s
Serbia under the operation which was described as a humanitarian
intervention at that time by NATO.
During the talks between Mr. Vucic and
Mr. Biden, the former got the much needed promise of economic support
from the United States, as well as the promise that the latter will put
pressure on Kosovo to continue the stalled Brussels negotiations.
The US Vice President kept his words
during his visit to Kosovo as part of the same tour, when he urged
Kosovo to seek reconciliation and work towards normalization of
relations with Serbia in order to make progress towards joining the European Union.
From the standpoint of US interests, Mr. Biden went to the Balkans to
initiate engagement and peace making among former enemies namely Serbia,
Kosovo, and Albania.
Serbian Prime Minister Mr. Vucic made
few concessions of his own during the talks with Mr. Biden. Serbia
agreed to play an active role in the trilateral talks between Serbia,
Albania and Kosovo. Mr. Vucic also promised to put pressure on Bosnian
Serb president Mr. Milorad Dodik to cancel a referendum that is
increasingly likely to take place in the Bosnian Serb entity Republika
Srpska on their “Republika Srpska day”. The referendum is drawing
condemnations and warnings from Bosnians and Western officials. A
constitutional court declared the day unconstitutional, and this
referendum may eventually work as a precursor to the entity’s secession
from Bosnia in the future.
During the talks between Mr. Biden and
Mr. Vucic, the Serbian Prime Minister also accepted to receive more
former Guantanamo Bay detainees along with the two that were already
sent to Serbia.
Vucic’s balancing acts to continue
Serbia is expected to continue its
attempts to balance as much possible between the West and Russia,
improve ties with its neighbors and former enemies. The Russian Prime
Minister Dmitry Medvedev is expected to visit Serbia later this year.
After receiving
19 High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles or “HMMWVs” from the
United States for participating in UN peace keeping operations, Serbia
announced a set of joint military exercises with Russian armed forces to
be held soon.
Since non-alignment is not an option any
more, Serbian Prime Minister Mr. Vucic’s balancing acts between the
West and Russia are quite intriguing, however, their eventual outcome
will remain murky for quite sometime. This will for sure keep the Balkan
observers engaged for years to come.
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