Public Sees U.S. Power Declining as Support for Global Engagement Slips
America’s Place in the World 2013
Overview
Growing numbers of Americans believe that U.S. global power and
prestige are in decline. And support for U.S. global engagement, already
near a historic low, has fallen further.
The
public thinks that the nation does too much to solve world problems,
and increasing percentages want the U.S. to “mind its own business
internationally” and pay more attention to problems here at home.
Yet this reticence is not an expression of across-the-board
isolationism. Even as doubts grow about the United States’ geopolitical
role, most Americans say the benefits from U.S. participation in the
global economy outweigh the risks. And support for closer trade and
business ties with other nations stands at its highest point in more
than a decade.
These are among the principal findings of America’s Place in the
World, a quadrennial survey of foreign policy attitudes conducted in
partnership with the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), a nonpartisan
membership organization and think tank specializing in U.S. foreign
policy.
Video: Key Findings from the Survey
The
survey of the general public, conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 6 among 2,003
adults, finds that views of U.S. global importance and power have passed
a key milestone. For the first time in surveys dating back nearly 40
years, a majority (53%) says the United States plays a less important
and powerful role as a world leader than it did a decade ago. The share
saying the U.S. is less powerful has increased 12 points since 2009 and
has more than doubled – from just 20% – since 2004.
An even larger majority says the U.S. is losing respect
internationally. Fully 70% say the United States is less respected than
in the past, which nearly matches the level reached late in former
President George W. Bush’s second term (71% in May 2008). Early last
year, fewer Americans (56%) thought that the U.S. had become less
respected globally.
Foreign policy, once a relative strength for President Obama, has
become a target of substantial criticism. By a 56% to 34% margin more
disapprove than approve of his handling of foreign policy. The public
also disapproves of his handling of Syria, Iran, China and Afghanistan
by wide margins. On terrorism, however, more approve than disapprove of
Obama’s job performance (by 51% to 44%).
The public’s skepticism about U.S. international engagement – evident in America’s Place in the World surveys
four and
eight
years ago – has increased. Currently, 52% say the United States “should
mind its own business internationally and let other countries get along
the best they can on their own.” Just 38% disagree with the statement.
This is the most lopsided balance in favor of the U.S. “minding its own
business” in the nearly 50-year history of the measure.
After
the recent near-miss with U.S. military action against Syria, the NATO
mission in Libya and lengthy wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, about half of
Americans (51%) say the United States does too much in helping solve
world problems, while just 17% say it does too little and 28% think it
does the right amount. When those who say the U.S. does “too much”
internationally are asked to describe in their own words why they feel
this way, nearly half (47%) say problems at home, including the economy,
should get more attention.
But the public expresses no such reluctance about U.S. involvement in
the global economy. Fully 77% say that growing trade and business ties
between the United States and other countries are either very good (23%)
or somewhat good (54%) for the U.S. Just 18% have a negative view.
Support for increased trade and business connections has increased 24 points since 2008, during the economic recession.
By more than two-to-one, Americans see more benefits than risks from
greater involvement in the global economy. Two-thirds (66%) say greater
involvement in the global economy is a good thing because it opens up
new markets and opportunities for growth. Just 25% say that it is bad
for the country because it exposes the U.S. to risk and uncertainty.
Large majorities across education and income categories – as well as
most Republicans, Democrats and independents – have positive views of
increased U.S. involvement in the world economy.
To be sure, the public sees some harmful consequences from the
movement of companies and people across borders. A majority (62%) says
that more foreign companies setting up operations in the United States
would mostly help the economy. But 73% think that the economy would be
hurt if more U.S. companies move their operations abroad.
The public has mixed views of the impact of attracting more
high-skilled and low-skilled people from other countries to work in the
United States: 46% say more high-skilled workers from abroad would
mostly help the economy while 43% see benefits from increasing the
number of low-skilled workers from other countries.
Views of Council on Foreign Relations Members
A companion survey of 1,838 members of the Council on Foreign
Relations (CFR), conducted online from Oct. 7-Nov. 11, provides a unique
perspective on public attitudes about America’s place in the world. The
organization’s members have a decidedly internationalist outlook: For
example, majorities see benefits for the United States from possible
effects of increased globalization, including more U.S. companies moving
their operations overseas.
The
CFR members, who were enthusiastic about Barack Obama’s presidency four
years ago, offer some significant criticism today. More than
four-in-ten (44%) say Obama’s handling of foreign policy is worse than
they expected, while just 16% say it is better than expected; 40% say it
met their expectations. A particular area of disappointment stands out
among the CFR members: that Obama’s handling of the situation with Syria
weakened America’s reputation around the world.
Notably, there is consensus among the organization’s members that the
public has become less internationalist. Fully 92% say that in recent
years “the American public has become less supportive of the U.S. taking
an active role in world affairs.”
When asked why the public has become less supportive of global
engagements, 42% of CFR members point to the wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan, or explicitly cite “war fatigue.” About a quarter (28%)
mention the struggling U.S. economy or the costs of international
engagement. Other factors cited are the ineffectiveness of recent U.S.
interventions (mentioned by 19%) and failures of U.S. leadership (17%).
(For more on how members of the Council on Foreign Relations view America’s Place in the World, see section 6).
Opinion about Iran and Views of Global Security Threats
The surveys, which were completed before the multilateral agreement
aimed at freezing Iran’s nuclear development program, find that most
Americans do not believe that Iranian leaders are serious about
addressing concerns over its nuclear program. Among those who heard at
least a little about the nuclear talks, just 33% say they think Iranian
leaders are serious about addressing international concerns about the
country’s nuclear enrichment program, while 60% say they are not.
Members
of the Council on Foreign Relations have more positive views of Iranian
leaders’ intentions. Still, just half (50%) of the organization’s
members say Iranian leaders are serious about addressing concerns over
its nuclear program, while 44% disagree.
Among the public, there are partisan differences over whether Iranian
leaders are serious about addressing concerns over the country’s
nuclear program. Majorities of Republicans (73%) and independents (62%)
who have heard at least a little about the nuclear talks say Iranian
leaders are not serious in addressing nuclear concerns. Democrats who
have heard about this issue offer more mixed evaluations; 42% say
Iranian leaders are serious and 48% say they are not.
Iran’s
nuclear program continues to be one of the top global threats to the
United States in the public’s view. Nearly seven-in-ten Americans (68%)
say that Iran’s nuclear program is a major threat to the well-being of
the United States, which is changed only modestly from America’s Place
in the World surveys in
2009 and
2005.
Views of other long-standing global threats, such as Islamic
extremist groups like al Qaeda (75% major threat), North Korea’s nuclear
program (68%) and China’s emergence as a world power (54%), also have
changed little in recent years.
However, the public now is deeply concerned by an emerging security
threat, possible cyber-attacks against the United States. Seven-in-ten
(70%) say that cyber-attacks represent a major threat, placing this on
par with Islamic extremist groups and Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
In terms of China and Russia, in particular, the public does not view
either country very favorably – just 33% have a favorable opinion of
China while 32% view Russia favorably.
Yet there is no evidence of growing public alarm about either China
or Russia. Only about one-in-five Americans (23%) regard China as an
adversary, while 43% see the country as a serious problem but not an
adversary; 28% say China is not much of a problem. That opinion has held
fairly steady for more than a decade. Similarly, relatively few (18%)
view Russia as an adversary; 36% say Russia is a serious problem but not
an adversary and 40% think the country is not much of a problem.
When asked which country represents the greatest danger to the United
States, identical percentages volunteer Iran and China (16%). Nearly
one-in-ten (9%) say that the United States itself represents the
greatest danger, while 7% each cite North Korea and Iraq.
Public’s Top Foreign Policy Priorities: Terrorism and Jobs
As in the past, many leading foreign policy priorities reflect domestic concerns.
While
83% say that protecting the United States from terrorist attacks should
be a top long-range foreign policy goal, about as many (81%) rate
protecting the jobs of American workers as a top priority.
Majorities also say that reducing the country’s dependence on
imported energy sources (61%) and combating international drug
trafficking (57%) should be top priorities, while nearly half say the
same about reducing illegal immigration (48%).
Many of the public’s domestically oriented goals are not shared by
most members of the Council on Foreign Relations: Just 29% say
protecting the jobs of American workers should be top policy priority,
compared with 81% of the public. And only about one-in-ten CFR members
(11%) sees reducing illegal immigration as a top long-range policy goal;
48% of the public views reducing illegal immigration as a top priority.
Climate change stands out as an issue of greater priority to CFR
members than the public: A majority of the organization’s members (57%)
say that dealing with global climate change should be a top foreign
policy goal, compared with 37% of the public.
Promoting human rights abroad, helping improve living standards in
developing countries and promoting democracy rate as relatively low
priorities for both the public and CFR members. These views have changed
only modestly in recent years.
Perceptions of U.S. Global Power
In
the public’s view, China long ago surpassed the United States as the
world’s top economic power. In the new survey, 48% say China is the
world’s leading economic power while just 31% say it is the United
States. That is little changed from recent years.
Yet, most Americans (68%) continue to say that the United States is
the world’s leading military power. Just 14% think China has overtaken
the United States in military strength.
In general terms, however, an increasing share of Americans think
that the United States plays a less important and powerful role as world
leader than it did 10 years ago. Currently 53% see the U.S. as a less
powerful world leader, up from 41% in 2009.
Members of the Council on Foreign Relations also believe that U.S.
power has declined. A majority of the organization’s members (62%)
express this view, compared with 44% in 2009.
Partisanship is a major factor in changing
public opinion about U.S. global power. Nearly three-quarters of
Republicans (74%) say the United States plays a less important and
powerful role than it did 10 years ago, up from 50% four years ago and
just 8% in July 2004.
Yet,
the percentage of political independents who view the U.S. as less
powerful also has grown, from 23% in 2004 to 45% in 2009 and 55% today.
Democrats’ views have changed little over this period; in the current
survey, 33% of Democrats say the U.S. is less powerful than it was a
decade ago.
Partisan differences are not as pronounced in opinions about whether
the United States is respected internationally. Majorities of
Republicans (80%), independents (74%) and Democrats (56%) say the United
States is less respected by other nations than in in the past.
In contrast with attitudes about America’s global power, there is
more partisan agreement that the United States should be less active
internationally. About half of independents (55%) and Republicans (53%)
and 46% of Democrats say the United States should mind its own business
internationally. In 2002, following the 9/11 attacks, 27% of
independents, 22% of Republicans and 40% of Democrats wanted the United
States to mind its own business internationally.
Obama and Foreign Policy
Barack
Obama’s overall job approval rating has fallen over the past year, and
he gets low ratings for his handling of number of foreign policy issues.
His job rating is below 40% for nine of 10 foreign policy issues
tested, including his overall handling of the nation’s foreign policy.
Terrorism is the only issue on which more approve of the job he is doing
(51%) than disapprove (44%).
Views of Obama’s job performance in handling foreign policy issues
are mostly on par with ratings of his performance on some domestic
issues. The survey finds that 37% approve of the way Obama is handling
health care and just 31% approve of his handling of the economy.
About half of Americans (51%) say that Obama is not tough enough in
his approach to foreign policy and national security issues; 37% say his
approach is about right while 5% say he is too tough.
The
share saying Obama is not tough enough has risen 10 points since
September (from 41%), though it is only slightly higher than the
percentage describing him this way in April 2010 (47%).
With
regard to specific security policies, 50% say the use of military
drones to target extremists in Pakistan and other countries in the
region has made the United States safer from terrorism, just 14% say it
has made the U.S. less safe, while 27% say it has not made a difference.
The government’s phone and internet surveillance programs get mixed
grades: 39% say they have made the nation safer from terrorism, 14% less
safe and 38% say they have not made a difference. Finally, as the war
in Afghanistan is winding down, just 31% of the public say the
12-year-long conflict has made the country safer from terrorism, 21% say
it has made the U.S. less safe, and the plurality view (43%) is that it
has not made a difference in U.S. security.