IN the past, Germany played a second-fiddle role when it came to Balkan affairs. Today it seems to be the conductor of the whole orchestra. According to Suzana Grubjesic, Serbia’s deputy prime minister in charge of European integration, “it is clear that agreements are made in Brussels but that Berlin makes decisions.”
Ms Grubjesic was in Berlin last week with Aleksandar Vucic, Serbia’s all-important first deputy prime minister, and a delegation from government, parliament and the Serbian presidency. Mr Vucic gave a keynote speech at the Bosch Foundation and discussed his government’s policies in front of a large audience (see picture above).
Also in Berlin was Neven Mimica, the Croatian deputy prime minister and Slaven Radunovic, who heads the Montenegrin parliament’s European integration committee. Igor Luksic, Montenegro’s, foreign minister had been in Berlin a few days earlier visiting the European Affairs committee of the German lower chamber, the Bundestag, which now holds a key to the future of the western Balkans.
The reason for this is that due to changes in German legislation in 2009, the Bundestag must be consulted on matters concerning EU enlargement. This makes the chamber unique amongst the EU’s 27 parliaments. The Bundestag has exercised this right twice, in voting to approve the opening of accession negotiations with Iceland and Montenegro.
In April the European Commission will make a recommendation as to whether Serbia should open negotiations. Most likely it will recommend that Serbia gets a date to do so, albeit conditioned on the fulfillment of various tasks. By the time the Bundestag gets to vote on the matter the country will have received two visits from Bundestag members to help them make up their minds.
In effect however, the real decision-makers are the government, and the European Affairs Committee of the Bundestag, which will recommend which way parliament should vote. According to Rainer Stinner, a member of the Bundestag, there are about 50 members who know something about Balkan affairs out of a total of 620. When it comes to doing something about the Balkans they need to convince everyone else. But first they must be convinced themselves, and in the case of Serbia, says one government source, Angela Merkel, the chancellor, “will probably have to get involved” in persuading the Bundestag which way to vote.
All this needs to be done by June 28th when a meeting of EU heads of government will decide on the matter.  Last October, when Norbert Lammert, the head of the Bundestag, said that Croatia was not ready to join the EU this July,  he caused panic in Croatia and a flurry of diplomatic activity between Zagreb and Berlin.
Last week, after meeting Mr Vucic, Guido Westerwelle, the German foreign minister left for a finger-wagging trip to Tirana and Skopje and he is also likely to visit Belgrade before the June European Council meeting.  In Tirana, he delivered some stern messages. He demanded that June’s general elections be held properly (Albanian election results are always disputed) and that recent nationalist rhetoric be curbed. This was as a clear a public message to Sali Berisha, the prime minister, short of actually saying out loud, “shut up”.
German officials say that they have taken the lead in Balkan affairs thanks to circumstance rather than design. After all, says one, "we did not volunteer to save the euro either". America once played an important role but it has long since turned to other pressing problems, France has “lost interest in the Balkans completely” says the official. Italy is more interested in business in the region and Britain and Holland agree on policy with Germany, but as their parliaments are not involved at this stage in Balkan EU integration, they don’t have the German clout.