Brankica Ristic Sputnik
America is preparing a big comeback - "come back" to the Balkans, and whether it will choose Sarajevo or Pristina as a starting point depends on a global plan that is currently not in the interests of Western interests. However, the upcoming year will not be a year of denouement for either BiH or Kosovo, because both issues depend on the Serbian factor, Sputnik's interlocutors are convinced.
Zoran Milivojevic, a former diplomat, notes that America has no priority in the Balkans when it comes to Kosovo or Bosnia and Herzegovina, because they see it as part of a single package with the strategic goal of the West to include this part of the world in its sphere of interest.
Serbs are a major obstacle to America
"The West is facing serious problems. In an effort to preserve its global position, it will export part of its internal problems, that is, by resolving issues at current points in the Balkans, it will try to amortize its internal problems. However, both issues depend on the Serbs ", our interlocutor believes.
According to him, the United States would choose BiH for its great return to this region only if it deems it easier.
"Unification or federalization of BiH implies questioning the position of RS. When it comes to what can be solved faster and more efficiently, that is, on which side we could concentrate more - on Pristina or BiH, then we would choose BiH, but that would only be in the short term, because essentially, it is one package. and it cannot be separated from each other, "Milivojevic said.
It is possible that they will "start" from BiH
Serbs in RS will certainly not allow that, our interlocutor notes, just as Serbia will not recognize Kosovo. But he adds that there may be more pressure on BiH for the simple reason that the power ratio there is 2: 1.
"Greater pressure on the Serbian side and perhaps an assessment that the Serbian factor in BiH can be broken more easily than here in Serbia." "Because Serbia is still a state and it is harder to break it if something doesn't work," Milivojevic says.
Political scientist from Banja Luka, Andjelko Kozomara, is convinced that the outcome has occurred in BiH, but, as he says, he is convinced that it will not happen, and even if it does, it will not be better.
"The interests of the three peoples are diametrically opposed, because the two peoples do not want centralization, while the Bosniaks only want that. That is why they rely on Biden from the time when he was a Bosniak lobbyist who advocated the bombing of Serbs in both BiH and Serbia. "I hope that Biden has changed in the meantime, and from the position of the most powerful military force in the world, he cannot behave like a cowboy like he did in the 1990s," Kozomara points out.
The hope of Bosniaks, he adds, that America will give them everything it wants is illusory now, because America has a material interest in Kosovo, it created Kosovo and I think the focus will be a priority, because BiH cannot regulate the way Bosniaks want.
American interests to the detriment of RS
Professor Dr. Stevica Dedjanski, president of the Center for International Cooperation, does not expect BiH to be the key to American return, but he expects them to be seriously engaged in resolving the issue of BiH at the expense of Serbs.
"The enthusiasm of Zeljko Komsic and Bakir Izetbegovic has increased because they expect big changes due to the arrival of Biden at the head of America." "I expect some changes, but not as big as they hope," he said.
In his opinion, the key thing is that nothing can happen without the consent of Serbs, be it in Kosovo or BiH.
Indications that the Biden administration could target BiH began when the US Senate Armed Services Committee, at a hearing on the security situation in Southeast Europe, concluded that stronger US involvement in the region was necessary because of the unstable and conflicting Balkans. undermines American national security and a diplomatic withdrawal would be a major American defeat.
The second indication was that NATO's influence was weak, and as the most serious factor, they cited Russian influence, which they believe is its focus in the Republika Srpska.