Thursday, June 14, 2012
The latest polls and post-election plans - The three basic scenarios
About sixty hours before the polls opened on 17 June, the electoral scene has begun to take shape, but the most basic of all is that the post-election scene: That is what government will follow the election night. What is certain is that there will be government. Either party SW is first or SYRIZA.
Nobody will take the risk of undermining a government, even a few months after the government does not show anything - at least right now - from the "core" format not only political but also economically and socially, that we have a government that longevity.
The most optimistic talk of a new term election the elections of 2014 , but this will depend on many factors that have not even made their appearance at this time. The overriding question is what will be the first party Sunday. SW The leak that lies ahead with 3-4% and give all the same companies that gave the start in front of the Southwest, such as Pulse, the Kapa, the MRB etc., while VPRC insists the front gives the SYRIZA reduction on undecided, like the Public Issue. Indeed SYRIZA has affected both by the case of "guerrilla" Amyra-Dourou revealed the defencenet.gr, and from ' back and forth "of the euro A.Tsipra. Beyond the Southwest "go pushing." Can terminate first, but the political dynamics in periorizeta "tsimplogimata" by PASOK, the Greek Independent, absorption of Rally and looting, Action, LAOS. In SW claim to have reduced the Independent in half of their power on 6 May, ie 5%, but colleagues P.Kammenou laugh with meaning ... Surprisingly, perhaps, the victory will given in SW ... PASOK! As we rewrite the urban space of PASOK, many of whom had previously been voted Southwest, go to SW. The question is a SW with a 30% and 10% with PASOK how many seats they can give the House: Depending on the strength parties to large regions, can give 155 (135 +20) to 160 MPs.
Calculate the SW and Tourism Services (it is the terrible case of the Tourism Services! Such party-wild has done it before its appearance in the political landscape of the place, since both the SW and SYRIZA, starting from the Tourism Services to form a government!) with about 20 MPs, so the conditional can reach and 180 and to form a government «a la Papademos," where the position of LAOS will have the Tourism Services.
The question is whether such a government will be able to survive for such a time horizon to be able to manage what is left ... previous government Papademos! By SYRIZA to 25-27%, the Independent, "enilikiomenous" in the House, the Golden Dawn in the same tempo to "suck" right and of course the Communist Party and the world to the streets in a class conflict that will make the December 2008 to look like "children's party."
Who, after all that has passed, a Greece with the Troika and Raichenmpach in his office again to give instructions?
If SYRIZA is first, Tourism Services calculates again, calling on the Communist Party, and independent and PASOK. At least vote for tolerance. But it can manage the problems such a government, which should be ... with all xanagnoristei planet?
most likely of all: Because no government can survive without SYRIZA, and without SW (after the E.Venizelos has said that to government wants to participate and the second party in) will form a government that would leave out Communist Party and Golden Dawn Golden Dawn or rather KKE and since it seems that the party of "hard" Right before all polls completeness. Or at any rate it will take a vote of confidence or tolerance of the five parties mentioned.
Any other solution is stillborn and leads to adventures ...
Department news defencenet.gr