The Socialist Party would win the race, if elections were to take place today

SManalysis

From: Euronews Albania

Latest update: 21/01/2021 

If the Parliamentary elections, due on April 25, were to take place today, 41.8% of Albanians would vote for the Socialist Party, according to a survey conducted by Euronews Albania and the prestigious MRB company.

28.2% would cast their ballot for the Democratic Party, 10.3% for the Socialist Movement for Integration, 1.5% for the Party for Justice, Integration and Unity, and 2.1% for other political parties.

The survey found out that even if all opposition parties would join forces against the Socialists, they would only get 42.7% of the votes, as opposed to the SP receiving 44% of the ballots. The margin is 1.3%. 

Unidentified ballots, which refers to those that are undecided, or do not wish to respond is 16.1%. This is a sizeable figure for parties who seek to improve their results in searching for more votes. Fidelity towards the main political parties in Albania remains high.

According to data from the survey, those who voted in favor of a respective party in 2017, will vote again in a higher percentage, around 90% for the SP and DP. The trust of the SMI voters in the 2017 elections appears to have faded after four years, as only 63.2% expressed support.

Voter turnout is a key component in determining the election winner. Asked over their certainty about voting in the April 25 elections, 63.2% said they are “very sure”, 25.4% said “sure”, 5% responded “not sure”, 6% (not sure at all), and 0.3% (do not know or refused to respond).

The majority of Albanians surveyed by Euronews Albania believe that the Socialist Party will win the elections (49.1%).

A smaller proportion (29.6%) believe that the Democratic Party will win, 10.9% think the winner will be the Socialist Movement for Integration, and 9.7% said that they will not vote.

Methodology

Three months ahead of the elections, 1.600 Albanians took part in face-to-face at-home interviews and 2.000 phone surveys, where they posed their concerns, how they evaluate the economy, the work of the government as well as the opposition, and how many votes will political parties receive if elections were to take place this week. A total of five polls, to be conducted periodically, until election day.

The study covers 12 electoral districts, interviews were taken along the timeframe from December 22, 2020 – January 13, 2021 with multiphase stratified sampling.

Eligible voters, equally divided based on gender responded to 43 questions. 

The objective of the survey is to research the thoughts and stances of Albanian citizens over the general elections due on April 25, 2021.

The first results were presented during “Political Barometer” hosted by journalist Ilva Tare and a panel of 6 experts, including the Chairman of MRB, Dimitri Mavros.