UPDATE ON ALBANIAN AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
The Research Institute for European and American Studies (RIEAS)
By Stavros Markos* (Copyright: Stavros Markos on line)
http://rieas.gr/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=398&Itemid=42
In a recent public appearance the Albanian National Security Council President and Army Chief Bamir Topi stated that: "The endless suspension of a final status in Kosovo decision creates serious perils for the regional stability. Albania should be prepared for any unexpected situation." This should not be surprising since Albanians were given the impression by the European Union (EU) and some NATO countries over the previous months that they were willing to recognize Kosovo's independence until the Serbian government in Belgrade and Serbian paramilitary nationalist groups openly announced their war preparations in order to retain control over the province.
In response, the United Nations and the EU advised all parties to hold, hoping that a solution streaming from the ongoing negotiations could break the entrenched impasse. In the meantime the Albanian nationalists in Kosovo, with the full support of Tirana, made unofficial claims of independence with the assumption they had Washington's support.
According to the Pristina daily Koha Ditore, for the last few weeks unofficial statements in political circles began to circulate, by which Serbia's Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, without the knowledge of the Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic, dispatched his private envoy, businessman Vojin Lazrevic to a number of European capitals so as to test their response to Kostunica's proposal on Kosovo being partitioned.
According to AKI, Lazrevic was indeed in Rome last week. Kostunica's Belgrade office has responded with a no comment reply to the reports and there has been no indication, officially, as to the responses so far from the European governments. However Lazervic may have been informed by them, that Tirana and the Kosovo Albanians would never support the above plan, even if they have to reach the point of preparing for war, in order to prevent partition.
Lazervic assumingly mentioned that if another war is inevitable, then the European Union and most of NATO member states should assist Serbia against any Albanian military unit, in Kosovo or from Albania itself and the reason being is that Albanian nationalists have support from Islamic militant groups.
Furthermore over the past few months there are considerable indications of Tirana's increased relations with Tehran. Iran is eager to see any war that can be used to distract the West from attacking Iran. Tehran can also use the next war in Southeast Europe to silence Vienna, and end the investigation into Iran's nuclear weapons program by the UN agency based there.
For the past week, Tirana has placed its military on "the second level of readiness" and all armed units are set to be active of "pre-mobilization" mode. In an attempt to defuse the situation Serbian Parliament member Dragan Todorovic is trying to portray reports of Albania's mobilization as "propaganda." Todorovic commented, "Still, I have to ask against whom Albania wants to go into war - Serbia, Montenegro or Greece."
Washington has expressed its serious concerns over these latest developments by sending CIA Deputy Director Stephen Kappes to visit Tirana on the 9th of September where he held two hours of secret discussions with the Albanian Secret Service (SHISH) Director Bahri Shakiri.
The escalation of tensions in the Balkan area alerts also FYROM, Bulgaria, Montenegro and most surely Greece which is heading towards general elections on the 16th of September. According to MAK News press agency, the President of FYROM, Branko Cervenkovski, has ordered for the rise on a first level alert of his country's security services, after the attack of Albanian paramilitary group against police patrol near Kumanovo.
Sofia continues to conduct wide-range propaganda about the rights of the Bulgarian minority in Albania. This issue has been raised since early August after a public statement by the Bulgarian ministry of foreign affairs in the Focus news agency and clearly portrays Sofia's wider interest for the Balkan affairs. The Bulgarian government last year, has distributed some 50 thousand passports to alleged Bulgarians in Albania, whilst the academics from Bulgaria mention around the existence of 100 to 300 thousands Bulgarians in Albania. The Bulgarian political and diplomatic maneuvers, creates further difficulties in Skopje after the decision of the Former Prime Minister of FYROM, Georgierwski to declare his nationality as Bulgarian one. Georgiewski during an interview on the national Bulgarian TV station declared that, “The Macedonian state, must be partitioned and Albanians can take Struga and Diber region, because after 5 years the Albanians have the capability to take more territories of this country”. As far as the tactic used by the Bulgarian side; it's not just the Bulgarian academics that are propagating the existence of a substantial minority of theirs in Albania, but also the Association of the Municipalities in Bulgaria decided to finance next year Bulgarian schools in Albania. That last move has created a stir in the Albanian press and damaged to an extent the relations between Sofia and Tirana.
In another field, that of security, Albania declared the end of the demilitarization of the Chemical Weapons process, financed from Washington with about 20 $ million. Also the rise of tensions in the region and in parallel the existence of organized crime and Islamic groups in Albania has obliged FBI to strengthen its operations in Tirana and make its presence more visibly over the past few months.
The Albanian Government has also strong cooperation with EU and Europol under the program "Intereg" that finances the Albanian frontier Guards corps in the area close to the Greek borders.
The current developments in the Balkans finds Greece in the midst of general elections, and the Greek Army is in constant alert after the catastrophic wildfires as well as, observing the borderline with Albania and FYROM for the case of an escalation in relation to Kosovo. In Southern Albania, (known also as Northern Epirus), a large Greek Community resides, which obligates the Albanian government to be in attention for any provocation from Albanian national paramilitary groups. Athens always has been supporter of the reforms in Albania, and is eager to assist in the implementation of proper human rights agenda in the country.
During the visit of the Under Secretary of the State Department on the 11th of June 2007 in Athens, Mr. Nicholas Burns, foreign Minister Dora Bakogianis declared that: "Albanian and FYROM are not ready to enter NATO in 2008 because they have made no progress in their reforms”. More recently, the Prime Minister Karamanlis during the course of the electorate Campaign stated in Thessaloniki international fair that “We will veto FYROM's entry to NATO if there is no compromise in the name issue".
On overall the recent entrance of Bulgarian advance in relation to the domestic Albanian politics, coupled with the Kosovo issue and the probability of a disintegration of FYROM; provides ample opportunities to the Greek diplomacy to gain a leading role in easing the tensions in the region. For the time being there are clear signs that a crisis is under way in the Western and Southern Balkans that could erupt as early as October 2007, unless there is no compromise between all interested parties.

Stavros Markos (Journalist, Member of the World Security Network Foundation-Southeastern European Office)

News sources:
Koha Ditore
AKI-Kronos
MaknewsFocus
Associated Press
Gazeta Sqiptare