"Guerrilla war would surely happen"

SManalysis

Tensions over Ukraine continue after a virtual summit of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart Joe Biden held on Tuesday.

SOURCE: B92, BLIC TUESDAY, DECEMBER 14, 2021 | 16:09

The White House's original statement was concise and restrained. It states that Biden expressed "deep concern" over Russian actions and warned that America and its allies would "react with strong economic and other measures in the event of a military escalation." Biden also "called for de-escalation and return to diplomacy".

U.S. officials said that meant a new attempt to implement the Minsk and 2014 protocols, signed after Russia occupied Crimea and sponsored the war in eastern Ukraine. This diplomacy will require "continuation" of discussions, the White House announced.

Will Putin take this path in the next few weeks and months? Or will he continue to threaten an invasion if his demand to publicly promise that Ukraine will never join NATO is not met - something Biden ruled out? Putin's wisest strategy would be to use the "exit ramp" in the form of the Minsk agreement and declare it a victory, the "Washington Times" writes, citing a thought experiment.

Imagine that despite telephone diplomacy on Tuesday, Putin put pressure on Ukraine with 175.000 soldiers, whom American intelligence says are ready to enter the battle. What would happen then? In the first days, Putin would face a chaotic war in Ukraine itself. The Ukrainian army cannot match the Russian one, but it is much more powerful than the army it faced when it occupied Crimea in 2014.

Ukraine now has better training, equipment, electronic warfare skills and experience on the battlefield than before. Putin gave up the covert approach that brought him success in 2014. He replaced the tactics of the hybrid war in the gray zone - the "green men" who quickly occupied key targets in Crimea - with 100.000 troops marching on the border. He cannot play this hybrid game now because the American intelligence services have revealed his secret plans for a full-scale war.

Ukraine also has an aggressive military intelligence service, commanded by General Kyrylo Budanov. He planned a brave operation last year to capture Russian mercenaries fighting in Ukraine. Although it failed, it was a hint of what Ukrainian secret operators could do in a real conflict.

In addition to fighting uniformed troops and intelligence operatives, Putin would likely face a prolonged guerrilla war by Ukrainian militias. Sources estimate that more than 400.000 pro-Kiev Ukrainians have undergone at least some training since 2014 and that at least a million weapons are in private hands, including AK-47s and other automatic weapons stolen from state stores.

As many as 15 militia groups are spread across the country - some are fiercely right-wing, but all are capable of making Moscow's life miserable. "Apart from the response of America and its allies, the Ukrainians will fight fiercely. A guerrilla war would surely happen," William B. Taylor, a former US ambassador to Kiev, told the Washington Post.

Putin would face immediate risks on the battlefield, but the long-term consequences could be far worse, even if he puts a government subordinate to Moscow. If Biden carried out his threats, Russia's economy would be destroyed. A weakened economy is likely to collapse if a united Europe and America impose sanctions that sources say could include cutting off Russia from the SWIFT international payment system.

Russia at war with Ukraine would only have China as a reliable ally. That could comfort Putin, but Chinese President Xi Jinping would not like it. The China-Russia axis would strengthen the "divided" world in which America and technologically advanced democracies would have an advantage over Moscow and Beijing at this time.

And, finally, there is the X-factor: the danger of the war in Ukraine spilling over into Russia and Belarus. Polls by the Levada Center in Moscow show that Putin's campaign to suppress Ukraine does not have majority support in Russia. As casualties increased, political pressure on Putin and his authoritarian friends grew.

Before the summit, many commentators estimated that Putin would be "behind the wheel", and the leader of the weakened America would be in the passenger seat. Biden has a number of problems he must solve, but Putin would be very reckless if he thought an invasion of Ukraine would be an easy walk, the Washington Post concludes.