A Balkan border change the West should welcome

SManalysis

Politico
Despite the risks, a land swap between Kosovo and Serbia could benefit both countries and the EU.

By MARKO PRELEC 8/23/18, 4:00 AM CET Updated 4/19/19, 1:43 AM CET

A pedestrian walks past a wall painted in the colors of the Serbian national flag with a map of Kosovo in the middle, in Belgrade on February 12, 2018 | Andrej Isakovic/AFP via Getty Images


Europe has an intense and understandable fear of changing national boundaries. But discussions about a land swap between Kosovo and Serbia, which have been in a simmering conflict for two decades, deserve careful support.

This means upending years of conventional thinking in Western foreign policy circles. But the tension between Serbia and Kosovo is a major headache for the Continent that needs to be tackled. It feeds instability on the European Union's southeastern flank and presents a major obstacle to integrating the Western Balkans into the bloc.

Serbia doesn’t recognize Kosovo's 2008 independence declaration and officially regards the territory — whose population is mainly ethnic Albanian — as a rebel province. Five EU member countries don't recognize Kosovo either. Most of them, like Spain, have separatist fears of their own. Russia and China keep Kosovo out of the U.N. and in international limbo.

While the impasse continues, neither country has a realistic hope of joining the EU. Brussels has made clear to Belgrade that it must settle its dispute with Kosovo before it can become an EU member.

There is no solution to the Kosovo conundrum without an agreement both sides genuinely support, and a land swap is the key to such a deal. Kosovo would trade its Serb-majority northern municipalities for Albanian-majority parts of Serbia’s southwest. Serbia would recognize Kosovo and lift its opposition to U.N. membership; Kosovo would commit to retaining protections for medieval Serbian monasteries and its remaining Serb population.

The main objection is that changing a border anywhere threatens borders everywhere in the region.

Why would Serbia agree to a deal like this? Because it represents an acknowledgement that American and European policy toward them has failed. Kosovo broke away under international supervision and on the assumption Serbia would eventually have to recognize its independence and territorial integrity. A land swap lets Serbia say: "You tried to do this without us and it didn’t work." Admissions like that are potent, especially when countries grapple with emotionally charged issues like history, identity, and territory.

For its part, Kosovo gets to be a full member of the international community and has a clearer path to EU membership. It could immediately join the Council of Europe, bringing its people the protections of the European Court of Human Rights.