European Separatism - EU Unity Remains Fragile
Catalonia will take the first steps toward holding a referendum, but a vote is unlikely until 2014, and a new fiscal deal with Madrid could even contain the push for self-determination. Following regional elections last year, a new center-left coalition was created to push for a referendum in the next two years. However, the coalition is not unified on economics with the center supporting austerity, while the left remains fundamentally opposed.
2013 will see growing debates around the effects of independence of Scotland from the United Kingdom, which will generate considerable noise. But Scotland’s referendum will not happen until 2014. In terms of the eventual outcome of the vote, polls show that most scots actually oppose a ‘yes’ vote, fearing tough negotiations over defense and oil revenues, among other issues. Moreover, an independent Scotland could be forced to reapply for EU membership and move toward euro adoption, both of which are highly unpopular.
In Belgium, the rise of the separatist new Flemish alliance (N-Va) will make negotiations on further devolution and finances difficult, but even an eventual collapse of talks won’t lead to the partition of the country. The victory of the N-VA in local elections puts the federal government under pressure. Two of the three Flemish parties present in the six party federal government--the Liberal Open VLD and the Christian democrats (CD&V)--need to deliver a credible alternative to the separatists in order to quell public demands for separation. Therefore, the Belgian government will face important challenges to its unity, but the next real challenge for the territorial integrity of the country will be the federal election scheduled in 2014.
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