German Institute presents 3 Kosovo outcomes September 26, 2007
German Institute for International Politics and Security has presented a paper that outlines 3 possible scenarios for Kosovo after the December 10 negotiations deadline.
First is a confederation scenario in which an independent Kosovo would form a a confederate union with Serbia under a working title "United Independent States of Serbia and Kosovo". In this variant, Kosovo Albanians who have seized power in the province would declare independence but immediately join this Union.
Second possibility is an independence recognition by Belgrade and Russia after initial anger dissipates in these respective centers.
The third scenario, termed as "blacK" by the German Institute sees a possibility of a Kosovo Albanian unilateral declaration of independence that is backed by Washington which would trigger a pullout by the UN peace keepers out of Kosovo and a division of the province. The institute also sees a possibility that this scenario would bring Serbian radicals to power in Belgrade and an escalation of violence in the region.
First is a confederation scenario in which an independent Kosovo would form a a confederate union with Serbia under a working title "United Independent States of Serbia and Kosovo". In this variant, Kosovo Albanians who have seized power in the province would declare independence but immediately join this Union.
Second possibility is an independence recognition by Belgrade and Russia after initial anger dissipates in these respective centers.
The third scenario, termed as "blacK" by the German Institute sees a possibility of a Kosovo Albanian unilateral declaration of independence that is backed by Washington which would trigger a pullout by the UN peace keepers out of Kosovo and a division of the province. The institute also sees a possibility that this scenario would bring Serbian radicals to power in Belgrade and an escalation of violence in the region.
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